Universities between monitoring and justice. 4 scenarios for the future of higher education

What could future scenarios for higher education look like? Siân Bayne and Jen Ross have played this intellectual game all the way through and developed various potential scenarios in their article entitled “Speculative futures for higher education” (2024). Their objective: the scenarios should serve as a provocation or starting point for conversations on the future of universities and higher education. To develop their visions, Bayne and Ross have abandoned the data-based approach and applied speculative methods instead.

Scenario 1: Extinction-era universities

The climate disaster has reached a very advanced stage. There is no longer enough food and water available everywhere. People have to leave their home countries and this leads to mass migration. There are no national borders anymore. The internet can now only be used for selected areas of public interest and can no longer be used by private individuals. Money no longer exists. Resources are redistributed: those who actively fight for humanity’s survival and renewable energies are rewarded.

Sounds unlikely?

In the period from 2011 to 2020, the global surface temperature exceeded the figure for 1850 to 1900 by 1.1°C, primarily as a result of greenhouse gas emissions. This man-made climate change has already led to significant losses and damage for both nature and humans. Current forecasts regarding global warming predict a further increase of 3.2°C in the mean temperature (IPCC, 2023), with possible consequences including heatwaves, heavy rainfall events, droughts, crop failures, water shortages, social upheaval, disease, migration and political instability etc.

And the universities?

In a dystopian vision, higher education would be urgently needed, but the infrastructures and institutions necessary for it could no longer be maintained.

An alternative scenario sees a positive change in higher education: where universities used to be self-contained institutions competing for funding and prestige, they now collaborate in global research networks spanning universities and countries to find possible solutions to overcome the crisis. At the same time, universities are now open to everyone: higher education is an intellectual commons – through both open educational networks and local learning collectives. This way, universities support human survival.

Scenario 2: AI Academy

Artificial intelligence is taking over a large number of academic tasks. Monitoring is ever-present, with the attendance of all the university staff and the students’ commitment and behaviour being recorded, for example.  Most people view this monitoring in a positive light as it is primarily the advantages that are seen. Issues of data privacy are hardly ever a matter of discussion. For the students, this means that AI evaluates a great deal of personal data and can therefore categorise their abilities immediately.  

Sounds unlikely?

Artificial intelligence can already be regarded as a key technology today. AI gained further huge momentum by no later than the end of 2022 with the release of ChatGPT. The opportunities that the use of AI in university teaching brings include the personalisation of learning, adaptive learning environments, intelligent tutorial systems and support for students in diverse academic tasks (von Garrel et al., 2023). There are some risks that offset these opportunities: extensive usage data is collected (which may conceal bias or partiality), and algorithms that are not transparent can lead to distortion (of data) and cause ethical problems (Christen et al., 2020; de Witt et al., 2020).  Significantly more data and also different data is likely to be collected in the future (through students’ and teachers’ own sensors as well as sensors from the environment, for example). AI can thus be used for monitoring, measurement and evaluation.

And the universities?

Universities have become places where the monitoring is constant. The university staff accept this as the universities could not exist without this extensive information on their students’ behaviour and abilities. Injustice, exploitation and discrimination are seen as risks. The result of this is that groups that are already marginalised are excluded, and those that put up active resistance avoid universities.

This scenario offers both a positive and a negative fiction: the high degree of personalisation can help students to expand their knowledge in many different ways but it could also lead to a learning experience that is fragmented and greatly reduced.

Scenario 3: Enhanced enhancement

Cognitive and physical enhancements form an integral part of our everyday lives. “Big pharma” and leading technology companies wield a vast power that challenges and often steamrollers democratic structures. Where there once used to be debate in ethics committees, now enhancement technologies permeate all areas of life.  Whether in education, healthcare or sport – human enhancement is ever-present. Smart drugs are used to control concentration, attention and alertness. Data is actively collected and used in all areas of society.  Brain data – from analysing the capacity for concentration to monitoring emotional states – has become the data industry’s most valuable raw material.

Sounds unlikely?

In 2025, pharmaceutical and technology companies are already among the world’s top-selling industries. And they are also trying to use their economic power to influence the social and political infrastructure. Lobbyists from the pharmaceutical industry such as the European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations or the Bayer Group are among the organisations with the highest annual expenditure on lobbying in the EU (Statista Research Department, 2025). The tech industry spends a total of EUR 113 million a year on lobbying in Brussels (Corporate Europe Observatory, 2023). In the USA, Elon Musk has even made it onto the President’s Advisory Board.

And the universities?

In this scenario, nowhere is the change more evident than at universities. Students and academics are routinely turning to smart drugs and using cognitive training apps and electronic neurostimulators to achieve the extreme levels of concentration and stamina required for academic excellence. The pressure is great: performance, productivity and measurable results dominate university culture. Technical systems that measure students’ commitment and emotions are no longer the exception either. They have become standard and create the most efficient learning environments possible.

However, it is also particularly at universities that resistance to such developments could arise. Academics and students refuse to accept the restrictions. They fight for the right to mental integrity and privacy and demonstrate these values on campus.

Scenario 4: Justice-driven innovation

The wealth distribution is extremely unequal and the discrepancy between rich and poor is huge. The gap exists not only between the Global North and Global South but also within the population of individual countries. This leads to permanent unrest and acute social division. The industrial economy has collapsed and democracies are under radical pressure to develop new economic, social and governance models. A changing political landscape is driving the implementation of new models for infrastructure and education systems. 

Sounds unlikely?

The richest one per cent of the population already owns as much as the poorer half combined (Turulski, 2024).  The number of billionaires is growing by the week, with the wealth of one billionaire increasing by around USD 2 million every day. At the same time, almost half of the world’s population (44%) lives below the poverty line of USD 6.85 a day (Oxfam, 2025). The most recent Oxfam report (2025) indicates that the super-rich were already exerting a disproportionate amount of influence on politics and threatening social justice and social peace in 2024 through the financing of political parties, market power and lobbying.

And the universities?

For this scenario, Bayne & Ross (2024) paint a positive vision of universities. As pioneers in activist groups, students and researchers play a central role in a political countermovement for social justice. They raise new questions about the goals of higher education and promote open learning. Alternative forms of knowledge exchange and the generation of knowledge beyond formal education become established. Traditional disciplinary boundaries are broken down; inclusion, de-colonisation and ethical questions shape the curricula.

Outlook

Predictions are difficult, of course. Nevertheless, the current upheavals and uncertainties might inspire us to play around with ideas about the future. What we suggest is this: take the visions of Siân Bayne and Jen Ross as inspiration. Take a look into the crystal ball – together with colleagues and/or students – and talk about what university teaching could look like in the future. For your intellectual games, you can use the extensive materials created by Siân Bayne’s team as part of the “Higher Education Futures” project.

Regine Bachmaier

Dr. Regine Bachmaier is a research associate at the Centre for University and Academic Teaching (ZHW) at the University of Regensburg. She supports teachers in the field of “digital teaching”, among other things, through workshops and individual counseling. In addition, she tries to keep up to date with the latest developments in the field of “digital teaching” and pass them on.

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Birgit Hawelka

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Dr. Birgit Hawelka is a research associate at the center for University and Academic Teaching at the University of Regensburg. Her research and teaching focuses on the topics of teaching quality and evaluation. She is also curious about all developments and findings in the field of university teaching.

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